Showing posts with label probability. Show all posts
Showing posts with label probability. Show all posts

Sunday, June 30, 2019

Celebrate

7.7.19
Michelle Kwan

Celebrate
Creation
庆祝创建 
Qìngzhù chuàngjiàn
創造を祝う
Sōzō o iwau
ps 66
celebramus creaturae

Celebrate creation with sound.
Let joy resound from the ground.

Sing for the glory of the light.
Dance for the mystery of the night.

When life give you ice
skate with joy for social delight.


The air adores the earth
for the mirth of her girth.

The planet gives birth to gravity
for fun in the sun, not depravity.

Sing praises for design.
Look to see that which is benign.
Have some wine! It's fine!

When Elisha saw Naaman with his leprosy
he invited him to bath in the Jordan as his therapy.


Leprosy was medically defined as a skin disorder.
The condition was condemned by the social order.

Skin disorders resulted from lack of hygiene.
Washing could cure an 'incurable' disease by reprieve.

Medical knowledge was not as well dispersed.
Media communication has helped reduce certain kinds of curse.

Cure the sick who have resigned to the 'design' of fate.
The benign design of function with form guides your mind to that which is great.

Work must be tested to show social worth.
Pride in good production is not a malicious birth.

The unseen wire is the inexplicable force. 
Card tricks are more numeric in the probability course.

Say, "You are awesome" to life.
Enemies become non-combatant with respect for rights.

Raise praise in different ways
for the rest of your days.
It will bring out the best in what you say.

Manifest destiny had its run.
Exclusion by destruction 
was what it had won.

Representation by inclusion
helps us to work as one.

The system of reward has to regulate
in relation to those who reformed from the degenerate state.


The rule of law by due process
helps us to do what needs to be done for progress.
Charges against a suspect need attention
in court with a jury that looks at the smoking gun
in the body of evidence to judge with doubt
to bring truth out.

Skepticism must have clout
to see truth. Justice will shout
for correction, not cruelty in punishment
for deception. Discrimination is self-diminishment.

Don't pout about the lout with no ground.
Bless this house with sound from all around.


Sound as Music

Let the sound be music as the profound ground
for happiness in what is best in what is allowed.

We have been tested, 
but not bested.

We have been tried, 
but not fried.
We will not be denied.

We had been pushed into a trap
with a burden on our backs.

Spinners made themselves look like winners.
Backers became whipcrackers
turned hackers,

but they will never win.
Spin is their sin.




We will enter our house with offerings of joy.
Everyone will accomplish more as we employ
our love together to deploy.

Draw near all you who are dear.
Don't fear. 

You will hear celebration 
for what has been done for our nation!



Celebrate civility with joy
to employ

love as an alloy.

Build a bastion of happiness

for your memory practice.

Raise praise in different ways
for the rest of your days.
It will bring out the best in your way.

Celebrate creation with sound.
Let joy resound from the ground.

Sing for the glory of the light.
Dance for the mystery of the night.

Yea Yah!
You fill me with awe!

----------------------

66 Jubilate Deo
Shout for God

1 Be joyful in God, all you lands;
sing the glory of his Name;
sing the glory of his praise.
2 Say to God, "How awesome are your deeds!
because of your great strength your enemies
cringe before you.
3 All the earth bows down before you,
sings to you, sings out your Name."
4 Come now and see the works of God,
how wonderful he is in his doing toward all people.
5 He turned the sea into dry land,
so that they went through the water on foot,
and there we rejoiced in him.
6 In his might he rules for ever;
his eyes keep watch over the nations;
let no rebel rise up against him.
7 Bless our God, you peoples;
make the voice of his praise to be heard;
8 Who holds our souls in life,
and will not allow our feet to slip.
9 For you, O God, have proved us;
you have tried us just as silver is tried.
10 You brought us into the snare;
you laid heavy burdens upon our backs.
11 You let enemies ride over our heads;
we went through fire and water;
but you brought us out into a place of refreshment.
12 I will enter your house with burnt-offerings
and will pay you my vows,
which I promised with my lips
and spoke with my mouth when I was in trouble.
13 I will offer you sacrifices of fat beasts
with the smoke of rams;
I will give you oxen and goats.
14 Come and listen, all you who fear God,
and I will tell you what he has done for me.
15 I called out to him with my mouth,
and his praise was on my tongue.
16 If I had found evil in my heart,
the Lord would not have heard me;
17 But in truth God has heard me;
he has attended to the voice of my prayer.
18 Blessed be God, who has not rejected my prayer,
nor withheld his love from me.

----------------------
2 Kings 5:8

When Elisha, the man of God, heard that the king of Israel felt threatened by the letter from the king of Aram, he sent a message, 'Why have you torn your clothes? Let him come to me that he may learn that there is a prophet in Israel.'

----------------------

Leprosy was medically defined as a skin disorder.
The condition was condemned by the social order.

Skin disorders resulted from lack of hygiene.
Washing could cure an 'incurable' disease by reprieve.

Medical knowledge was not as well dispersed.
Media communication has helped reduce certain kinds of curse.

================
Gal. 6:4

All must test their own work; then that work, rather than their neighbor's, will become a cause for pride.

----------------------

Work must be tested to show social worth.
Pride in good production is not a malicious birth.

================
Luke 10:9-10

Whenever you enter a town and its people welcome you, eat what is set before you; cure the sick who are there and say to them, "The kingdom of God has come near to you."

----------------------

Cure the sick who have resigned to the 'design' of fate.
The benign design of function with form guides mind to that which is great.

================

Popular Culture
Lucy Hale

C.J. Ducasse
b.  7.7.1881, Angouleme, France
d.  9.3.1969, Providence, Rhode Island

Curt John Ducasse was a distinguished American philosopher who taught at the University of Washington and Brown University. He spent most of his professional career at the latter.

He is best known for his work in metaphysics and epistemology. His discussions about causality, the nature of mind and aesthetics are of particular interest. He greatly influenced the work of many mid- and late-twentieth-century analytic philosophers.

His magnum opus in parapsychology is his book, A Critical Examination of the Belief in a Life After Death (1961).

He was born in France in the latter part of the 19th century.

Angouleme

Angouleme is in the southwest of France.

The city is located on a plateau overlooking a meander of the Charente River. It has the nickname "balcony of the southwest."

Angoulême was a fortified town for a long time as the capital of Angoumois in the ancient regime. The term in French means "old regime" or "former regime".

It was used by revolutionary advocates for republican government to describe the monarchy as the political and social system of the Kingdom of France from the Late Middle Ages (circa 15th century) until 1789. The hereditary monarchy and the feudal system of French nobility were abolished by the French Revolution.

The notion of "absolute monarchy"  was pejoratively typified by the king's right to issue lettres de cachet. These letters reportedly denied the right to appeal. They were used in the efforts by the kings to create a centralized state.

The Kingdom of France retained its irregularities despite the organization in centralization. Authority regularly overlapped and nobles struggled to retain autonomy.

The need for centralization in this period was directly linked to the question of royal finances and the ability to wage war. The internal conflicts and dynastic crises of the 16th and 17th centuries included the Huguenot Wars between Catholics and Protestants and the Habsburg's internal family conflict.

The territorial expansion of France on top of these conflicts in the 17th century demanded great sums which needed to be raised through taxes. The land tax (taille) and the tax on salt (gabelle) are examples. Contributions of men and service from the nobility were also solicited.

Angouleme was highly coveted due to its position at the center of many roads important to communication throughout the history of France. It suffered from many sieges. The city inherited a large historical, religious and urban heritage from its tumultuous past perched on the rocky spur.  It attracts a lot of tourists.

Curt John Ducasse

Ducasse was born in Angoulême, France on July 7, 1881.

He obtained A.B. and A.M. degrees in philosophy from University of Washington. He obtained his PhD from Harvard University in 1912.

He is most notable for his work in philosophy of mind and aesthetics. His influence can be seen in the work of Roderick Chisholm and Wilfrid Sellars.

Roderick Chisholm advocated for Libertarianism or Indeterminism. He has been called the philosopher's philosopher. His argument for free will was related to the argument of survival in the belief in immortality as presented by Ducasse.

Wilfred Sellars is known as an American philosopher who was prominent in the development of critical realism. Talk of reason, epistemic justification and intention is not the same as talk of cause and effect in the sense of physical science. Dialog for reason cannot necessarily be mapped onto the explication of experimental investigation.

Ducasse used critical realism to remove psychology as the basis to investigate the paranormal. The study of ESP (Extra-Sensory Perception) and PK (Psycho-Kinesis) was limited to that which could be measured with scientific devices and observation. The contrast with generally predictable events was assumed.

He served as the president of the Eastern division of the American Philosophical Association (1939-40) and president of the Philosophy of Science Association (1958-61).

He was influenced by William James and Josiah Royce. William James is known for his radical pragmatism. Josiah Royce is the father of American idealism.

Ducasse wrote on parapsychology. He joined the American Society for Psychical Research in 1951 and served a term as vice president beginning in 1966.

His book A Critical Examination of the Belief in a Life After Death is a philosophical attempt to examine the idea of immortality. He expressed his belief in survival in it. The book was praised by parapsychologists. Criticism came from philosopher Corliss Lamont who asserted that some of the content was wishful.

When he wrote his books Nature, Mind, and Death and A Philosophical Scrutiny of Religion, he contended that we have not only a right, but not an obligation, to believe in survival and reincarnation.

He was interested in parapsychology early in his career. His views on the strength of the evidence evolved over the years. He was consistently clear that, as far as the experimental research for ESP and PK was concerned, that evidence is ‘practically conclusive.’

Ducasse would come to distinguish paranormal investigation from pyschology. He is the reason that ghostbusters go into houses with scientific devices to measure for the claim of paranormal activity.

It was Ducasse who coined the term ‘paranormal’ to divest psychical research of its psychological association. He felt that this field of research concerned paranormal phenomena as a distinct domain not to be subsumed under a standard or widely-recognized set of psychological phenomena.

Suppose that some phenomenon P is causally explicable in terms of current scientific theory, but no one has discovered what that explanation is. The explanatory limitation here is ours with respect for current theories. This state of affairs would not justify our taking P to be paranormal.

If the thing can be explained in terms of cause and effect, it is not paranormal. It reduces to a consideration of thought in observation.

What was the 'magical' force that 'psychokinetically' moved an object with no apparent cause. Wire is used often enough in video productions because the wire doesn't usually show up on the video. Large wires can be attached onto a harness to make it look like someone can fly through space.

Ducasse's view is Platonic with respect for the immortality of the soul and re-incarnation. It attempts to explain the cyclical nature of progress from polytheism to monotheism in philosophy, but holds a position against majority view monotheism.

Science writer Martin Gardner observed that Ducasse was notable for "combining nonbelief in God with a belief in the preexistence and the afterlife of human souls."

Curt Ducasse
S. 柯特·杜卡斯
C. 柯特·杜卡斯

柯  Ke   stem                       柯  Ka        handle         Ka  か-    カ-          Keo  커  big               
特  te    very                        特  toku     special         to   と        ト          teu   트  the                       
杜  Du   restrict                   杜  to         woods         Du  でゅ  デュ       Dyu   듀  dew                   
卡  ka    card                       卡  sa         card              ka    か      カ         keo   카  big           
斯  si      this                        斯  shi       this               su    す      ス         se     세   three         

----------------------

The unseen wire is the inexplicable force.
Card tricks are more numeric in the probability course.

================

Bio
wiki JC Ducasse
Immortality with Reincarnation
Critical Examination of Life after Death
Problems of Interaction
IEP: Interaction in Dualism
Immortality as Survival
Reincarnation
Paranormal
Text on Immortality

The Foundation for Morals and Legislation

The statement that the greatest happiness for the greatest number has been criticized as hypocritical. When Bentham presented the argument slavery was legal. Revolution was being pushed as a norm.

The American and French revolutions had established independent republics. Constitutional law was the 'modern innovation.' Slavery had not been outlawed. Voting rights had not been extended to all citizens old enough to serve in the military.

It can be argued that people were persuaded that happiness for some doesn't justify the imposition of misery on others with enslavement. It was this principle that eventually outlawed slavery as a trade and an institution.

Was the thought that republic was for the majority and the majority was only for the happiness of the largest social group the only driving force in hypocrisy?

Socialism countered with the implication that labor was the largest representative body in any country. Their demands should be met for the happiness of the nation in the world. Their theory was that the happiness of the largest representative body was more important than the success of the wealthy.

The 'largest representative body' largely rejected the value of education as a means to attain success with joy without depriving upward mobility for others.

Rawls from Harvard used the 'veil of ignorance' to imply that the majority is the cause of oppression for the minority. This view was hypocritical of the view that the minority interest could be an even greater cause of social dissonance.

Republican government is such that the majority has to represent what is right in law. The minority has to agree with that which is right as well. Otherwise, minority groups views are collectively presented to make the majority view look like the cause of unhappiness for the country even when the collective view for liberal expenditure is worse.

The difficulty with the theory that the greatest number of people is always the determinant cause in making decisions is that government has to limit its own power in control with legislation.

Law is written to persuade people to act in a way that will not damage the property or health of others. Defense from damage is a significant qualifier.

Liberalism is the cause of liberal expenditure. Liberal expenditure reduces the economic support for rights for citizens.

Democrats have a liberal platform that seeks to increase expenditure by the broadening of appeal to diverse representation. It's a chaotic position.

Is the majority always wrong? Doesn't the statement that the 'majority is always wrong' beg the question as to what is wrong about the majority of minorities?

Public policy has to resolve itself to present the possibility that legal norms have to be guided by what is right with the moral position for law against doing damage. Defense from attack has to be against a clear and present danger.

There is a particular qualification with respect for defense against lethal and imminent deadly force. Deadly force can only be used against the physical threat of lethal attack.

Training has to have the intent to promote self-regulation with the use of military force in national alliance or international cooperation.

Search and Rescue operations condition participants to work together in adverse circumstances to rescue someone or a number of people who are in distress.

SAR is fundamentally beneficial to training that promotes teamwork for a benign benefit in well-regulated operations.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Why

6.13.19
Greek Fortress Outside Wall of Jerusalem

Why
This?
为什么这样
Wèishéme zhèyàng
なぜこれ
Naze kore
ps74
Quid est

Why this
after the bliss 
of our tryst?

What happened to the congregation you bought long ago,
the tribe you redeemed for the inheritance of your ancestral tempo
and the secure foundation for the security of your escrow? 

No one has been found like Abraham.
He kept the law like a histogram.
He certified the covenant in his flesh.
He became the father of the nations crest.
When he was put to the test
he substituted something lesser as better for the best.

Turn your attention to the attack on our heritage.
Liberal power has made deceptive experiment the imperative.

Socialism has laid claim to the end of time
to use the threat of revolution to meet demands across borderlines.

They were like loggers laying siege to a grove of trees.
They rejected conservative reason for various causes as idolatries.

Populist rhetoric was used to deny unity. 
Factional speech declared special favor for importunity. 

Media expression blared that they cared when they did not.
Opposition was attacked and detracted as though they had been caught.

Foreign policy for aggression displaced accountability
for the national security of official improbability. 

How long will the adversary scoff at the utility of joy?
How long will they make aggression into the avoirdupois?

Why do you draw back your hand?
Why is your demand bidden in our land?

Some person was caught up into Paradise with Christ.
He heard things of joy beyond the ability to describe.

The royalty of his noble authority was honored by the public.
Oaths of loyalty were laid before his path by people who had felt they were loveless.

One ruler in the party of succession for the conservation of wealth
in the economics of stability for the commonweal
has been the rule of order for social and personal health
amidst the tales and travails of stealth. 

When liberals from the lower house have been placed over the higher
and the agreement has been forced upon the prior
administrative qualifier
as the fire of desire for the entire official attire
the basis for civil rights has been decayed in the quagmire.

It's like the sea was divided by the elements of strife.
The heads of dragons were shattered upon the waters for life.

The head of the Leviathan was crushed
that the people of the desert might be fed enough.
Raiders were not allowed to take their stuff.

Judean Wilderness

The dry earth was split by spit for spring and torrent.
The ever flowing river serves the converse as conditions warrant.

Yours is the day for work or play.
Yours also is the night to review the ways of the day.

You established the moon and sun.
Energy was made to run for fun.

The study of probability is a mental construct
that stems from the observation of variance in nature's conduct.

The boundaries of the earth have been fixed.
Summer, fall, winter and spring have conditions mixed
in the relative fix of the betwixt of each interdict. 

Summer bans cold. 
Winter abhors warmth as old.
Spring decreases darkness and cold for growth.
Fall is the end of growth as an oath for most.

Remember how those who listened with enmity 
scoffed at the Incarnation of Memory. 

Foolish people despised your Name
to defame your legacy as lame. 

Do not sacrifice the dove to wild beasts.
Make sure you have enough for what your child needs.

Look upon your covenant embodied
as the ground for your governance copied.

Let legitimate complaint be heard.
Help the poor find economy with your word.

Rise to shine to maintain your cause.
Let those who revile authority find respect for law.

Show that error caused by mass deception 
results in tumult for the engine of reception.

----------------------------

Dyeus- shine or sky
Zeus- Light
Deus- God

74 Ut quid, Deus?
Why, God?

1 O God, why have you utterly cast us off?
why is your wrath so hot against the sheep of your pasture?
2 Remember your congregation that you purchased long ago,
the tribe you redeemed to be your inheritance,
and Mount Zion where you dwell.
3 Turn your steps toward the endless ruins;
the enemy has laid waste everything in your sanctuary.
4 Your adversaries roared in your holy place;
they set up their banners as tokens of victory.
5 They were like men coming up with axes to a grove of trees;
they broke down all your carved work with hatchets
and hammers.
6 They set fire to your holy place;
they defiled the dwelling-place of your Name
and razed it to the ground.
7 They said to themselves, "Let us destroy them altogether."
They burned down all the meeting-places of God in the land.
8 There are no signs for us to see;
there is no prophet left;
there is not one among us who knows how long.
9 How long, O God, will the adversary scoff?
will the enemy blaspheme your Name for ever?
10 Why do you draw back your hand?
why is your right hand hidden in your bosom?
11 Yet God is my King from ancient times,
victorious in the midst of the earth.
12 You divided the sea by your might
and shattered the heads of the dragons upon the waters;
13 You crushed the heads of Leviathan
and gave him to the people of the desert for food.
14 You split open spring and torrent;
you dried up ever-flowing rivers.
15 Yours is the day, yours also the night;
you established the moon and the sun.
16 You fixed all the boundaries of the earth;
you made both summer and winter.
17 Remember, O Lord, how the enemy scoffed,
how a foolish people despised your Name.
18 Do not hand over the life of your dove to wild beasts;
never forget the lives of your poor.
19 Look upon your covenant;
the dark places of the earth are haunts of violence.
20 Let not the oppressed turn away ashamed;
let the poor and needy praise your Name.
21 Arise, O God, maintain your cause;
remember how fools revile you all day long.
22 Forget not the clamor of your adversaries,
the unending tumult of those who rise up against you.

-------------------------
===================
-------------------------

Sirach 44:19-20

Abraham was the father of a multitude of nations.
No one has been found like him in glory.
He kept the law of the Most High
when he entered into a covenant with him.
He certified the covenant in his flesh.
When he was tested he proved faithful.

-------------------------

No one has been found like Abraham.
He kept the law like a histogram.
He certified the covenant in his flesh.
He became the father of nations crest.
When he was put to the test
he substituted something better as best.

===================

2 Corinthians 12:2-4

I know a person in Christ who 14 years ago was caught up to the third heaven. Whether it was in the body or outside the body I do not know. God knows. I know that such a person was caught into Paradise and heard things that are not to be told. No mortal is permitted to repeat.

-------------------------

Some person was caught up into Paradise with Christ.
He heard things of joy beyond the ability to describe.

===================

Luke 19:39

Some of the Pharisees in the crowd said to him, 'Teacher, order your disciples to stop.' He answered, 'I tell you, if these were silent, the stones would shout out.'

-------------------------

The royalty of his noble authority was honored by the public.
Cloaks were spread before his path by people who had felt they were loveless.

===================

Probability

Bruno de Finetti
b. 6.13.1906  Innsbruck, Austria
d. 7.20.1985  Rome, Italy

Bruno de Finetti  was an Italian probabilist statistician and actuary. He was  noted for the "operational subjective" conception of probability.

The classic exposition of his distinctive theory is the 1937 "Prediction: Logical Laws, Subjective Sources." (La prévision: ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives) The paper discussed probability founded on the coherence of betting odds and the consequences of exchangeability.

Exchangeability is equivalent to the concept of statistical control. This form of control has application in the manufacturing process. It ensures quality in efficient production to make more products conform to specification with less waste.

De Finetti was born in Innsbruck, Austria.

Innsbruck, Austria


Map

The town passed into the hands of the Counts of Tyrol in 1248. The city's arms show a bird's-eye view of the Inn bridge. The design has been used since 1267.

The route over the Brenner Pass was a major transport and communications link between the north and the south of Europe. It was the easiest route across the Alps. It was part of the Via Imperii, a medieval imperial road under special protection of the king. The revenues generated by serving as a transit station on this route enabled the city to flourish.

Tyrol was ceded to Bavaria, ally of France, during the Napoleonic Wars. Andreas Hofer led a Tyrolean peasant army to victory in the Battles of Bergisel against the combined Bavarian and French forces. He made Innsbruck the center of his administration.

The combined army later overran the Tyrolean militia army. Innsbruck was part of Bavaria until 1814. Austrian rule was restored after the Vienna Congress (1814-1815). The town was part of the Austrian monarchy until 1918. It was one of the 4 autonomous towns in Tyrol.

The location in the Alps has made it a destination for winter sports. Innsbruck is also known for its Imperial and modern architecture.

Bruno de Finetti

De Finetti was born on June 13, 1906 when Innsbruck was part of Austria-Hungary. His Italian parents were Austrian citizens. His father worked as a railway constructor. He was an engineer as was his father before him.

The states of the Italian peninsula and Sicily had united as a kingdom in 1861. Victor Emmanuel II was the king. The Italian Nationalist movement held the goal of joining the modern industrialized powers.

Extensive industrialization and the building of a modern infrastructure was well underway by the 1890's. Alpine railway lines connected Italy to the French, German and Austrian rail systems. Two south-going coastal lines were also completed. Most of the larger industrial businesses were founded with considerable investment from Germany, Britain, France and others.

The de Finetti family presence in Innsbruck was a result of the expansion of the railway system.

It was no surprise when in 1923 Bruno de Finetti enrolled at Milan Polytechnic (Politecnico di Milano). He discovered his true passion for mathematics there.

He was inspired by a paper of the biologist Carlo Foà during his third year. He started research work in the field of population genetics. This led him to the first of his almost three hundred writings (1926). it was the first example of a model with overlapping generations in population genetics. He was at least forty years ahead of its time.

He moved to the recently founded University of Milan. He graduated in Applied Mathematics with a dissertation on affine geometry in 1927. Affine geometry is the study of parallel lines. He was supervised by Giulio Vivanti, a mathematician who made some noteworthy contributions to complex analysis.

A position was already waiting for him in Rome as an actuary and statistician at the Italian Central Statistical Institute, founded and directed by Corrado Gini. He remained there until 1931.  He transferred to the Trieste insurance company Assicurazioni Generali from 1931.

He was one of the first mathematicians to become aware of the possibilities offered by computing machinery due to the mechanization of some actuarial services. He supplemented his work in the following years with several academic appointments, both in Trieste and Padua.

He won a competition for Chair of Financial Mathematics and Statistics in 1936, but was not nominated due to a fascist law barring access to unmarried candidates.

He concentrated on his academic activity starting from 1946. He became a full professor at the University of Trieste in 1947. He was appointed as ordinary professor at the university only in 1950. He moved to "La Sapienza" University of Rome in 1954 where he remained until the end of his career.

De Finetti was especially fond of the aphorism: Probability does not exist. The study of probability is an expression of the observer's view of the world. It is a mental construct as such. It has no existence of its own.

Statistical inference is no longer an empirical process that produced opinions from data as a consequence of the subjective approach. It becomes a logical-psychological process selecting opinions compatible with data among the available ones.

His contributions to probability and statistics do not reduce to his subjective approach. They include important results on finitely additive measures, processes with independent increments, sequences of exchangeable variables and associative means.

De Finetti emphasized a predictive inference approach to statistics. He proposed a thought experiment along the following lines for coherence in a philosophical gambling strategy.

You must set the price of a promise to pay $1 if there was life on Mars 1 billion years ago and $0 if there was not. The answer will be revealed tomorrow.

You know that your opponent will be able to choose either to buy such a promise from you at the price you have set or require you to buy such a promise from your opponent at the same price.
You set the odds in other words, but your opponent decides which side of the bet will be yours.

The price you set is the "operational subjective probability" that you assign to the proposition on which you place your bet. This price has to obey the probability axioms if you are not to face certain loss as you would if you set a price above $1 (or a negative price).

De Finetti could justify additivity by considering bets on more than one event. Prices or equivalent odds that do not expose you to certain loss through a Dutch book are called coherent.

A Dutch book or lock is a set of odds and bets in gambling which guarantees a profit regardless of the outcome of the gamble. It is associated with probabilities implied by the odds not being coherent.
The term usually refers to a sequence of trades that would leave one party strictly worse off and another strictly better off in economics.

His interest in economics was innate and led him during his first year at Milan Polytechnic to attend the lectures given there by Ulisse Gobbi. These confirmed him in his radical position for a collective Pareto optimum with a "fairness" criteria.

Italy's politics favored radical socialism due to a regionally fragmented right after unification. The kingdom attempted to join the Great Powers in acquiring colonies in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The cost of colonization made the task difficult. It added to the huge debt that modernization had incurred.

Italy remained neutral at the beginning of World War I. The kingdom declared war on the Austro-Hungarian Empire in exchange for several territories. The Fascist regime grew after the end of WWI in opposition to the threat of socialist revolution by labor.

The political situation had been reduced to the competition between the different forms of socialism. This had a parallel development with the case in Spain in their civil war. The expansion of the condition for revolutionary demand was largely the result of labor union agreement with the economic theory of Engels and Marx. 

De Finetti was a Fascist during his youth, then moved to Christian socialism and finally adhered to the Radical Party. His longing for social justice caused him  to run as a candidate in several elections in the 1970's. He was arrested for his antimilitarist position.

He is also noted for de Finetti's theorem on exchangeable sequences of random variables. He was not the first to study exchangeability but he brought the subject to greater visibility. He started publishing on the topic in the late 1920's but the 1937 article is his most famous treatment.

He introduced the concept of infinitely divisible probability distributions in 1929.

He also introduced de Finetti diagrams for graphing genotype frequencies.

Bruno de Finetti was a honorary fellow of the Royal Statistical Society as well as a member of the International Statistical Institute and a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics at the time of his death. He died in Rome on July 20, 1985.

Extensions of de Finetti's representation theorem have been found to be useful in quantum information in topics like quantum key distribution and entanglement detection in the 21st century.

Bruno de Finetti
S. 布鲁诺·代·芬蒂
T. 布魯諾·代·芬蒂

布 Bu       to announce              布  fu        cloth                     Bu  ぶ      ブ              Beu   브   the
鲁  lu        rude                           魯 ro         foolish                 ru  る-     ル-              lu      루   sack   
诺  nuo    promise                      諾 daku   consent                  no  の      ノ                no     노   furnace
代  dai      generation                 代 dai       substitute             de  で      デ                 deu   드   de       
芬  Fen     perfume                     芬 fun      perfume               Fu   ふぃ  フィ            Pi      피    blood
蒂  di        stem                          蒂  tei       stem of plant        net  ねっ ネッ             ne     네     yeah 
                                                                                                ti     てぃ   ティ           ti       티     tea     

-------------------------

The study of probability is a mental construct
that stems from the observation of variance in nature's conduct.

===================

wiki Bruno de Finetti
St. Andrews History De Finetti
Digital Papers
Medical Papers

Thursday, November 1, 2018

Shape


Royal Crown of Hungary


Shape
Yourself

あなた自身を形作る

Anata jishin o katachidzukuru
ps 24

Why shape anything?
Isn't nature amazing?

The world is created from the earth.
A person starts to live with birth.

The world is everything that is the case.
It is something that we make as a place.

What is that which always is and has no becoming?
Space is the place for the race of galactic running.

What is that which is always becoming and never is?
Lightning is the track for a crack through the subatomic.
The ground for it is chronically chthonic.

That which is perceived remains in the same state.
Apperception exists, but it evaluates.
It does not generate or abate
reality as the state for the slate.

That which is conceived by opinion without reason
is always in disagreement with the season.
It is becoming or perishing that does not have agreement
with that which already exists in material completion.

Everything that becomes or is created
must be caused by something that can be dated.

Nothing material can be created without a cause.
The immaterial is that which gives us pause.

The work of the creator who creates something to last
shapes form as an unchangeable pattern to cast.

Was the world always in existence and without a start?
It was created as tangible; as sensible as your heart.

All sensible things are apprehended by sense
to inform opinion as the seat for judgment.
Sensibility is created by sense with the meaning lent.
Facts are not to be ambition bent.

The Maker of the universe is beyond determination as a fact.
Belief in said existence is an opinion which finds substance in an act.
How someone acts has an impact on tact
in the relational track.

Love built a house and added a garden
Fortune made the home in the frame that had been started.

Adversity tried to sweep the home away.
The family had to overcome the melee
to defend their say during their stay.

Leaves from the tree of immortality
provided shade from heat as a probability.

The roof was held by walls of wood and stone
but time worked to wear the house as home.

Heat and pressure worked steadily and more
to fell the walls. Winter and summer cleft and tore
at the doors and everything else above the floor.

Grace shored the structure to cut adversity as it grew
until decay combined with the force of death in a firm bond renewed
to raze the building to the floor's mildew.

Love and grace took glory by the hand
and built a braver palace than the one that did not stand.

The builder had to look at what did and didn't work
in order to build a stronger place above the earth.

The sculptor learned to look into the future with his craft.
He worked with bronze to shape birds and bats.

The flight of his imagination based on the past
shaped the prediction for the event as it had been cast.

When pain had asked what brought this plan,
the decision to act in anger against the device of man
kept the moths from death in the flame that spans
the length of time in the view that scans
the pattern in the alluvial fan.

The strength to work beyond what was learned from pain
prayed for judgment from the experience of agriculture with the angular vein
to right the wrong from righting wrong for dwelling long in too much or too little gain.

The battle between the fort and the phalanx forge was on.
Siege machines would reach beyond
the wall as the protective phenomenon.

The world is the totality of facts.
Apprehension includes the interpretation of acts.

Many years were tossed by storms
in the journey from the fortification of forms
to the state of law with procedural norms.

Time, toil and length of labor
were required to construct forts to savor.

Such length of labor for so vast a frame
earned leadership and labor a place in lasting fame.

Ships from the fallen fort were now a scarce affair.
Lack in foreign language made finding direction rare.

They rarely landed in a place where
they had been before for trade that was fair.

The praiseworthy had to show his care
by learning to navigate by the stars way up there.

Her youth moved angrily in the night
when she appeared between war and leadership's might.
She was a product of destruction in her own right.
She labored with endless discontent as her targeted plight.
This heart of hearth and heaven was hell bent in sight
to let her fury vent for blight.

Worthiness moved past the anger
to live in the peace of an objective manner.

Spring stopped at the start of summer.
The beauty of the season still lives in wonder
like the joy of the newcomer.

The world is determined by the facts
and all the acts for different tracks.

The totality determines that which is and is not the case
for the face of the human race.

The world that in my thinking lies
is the home for truth in paradise.

My life’s fair visions are unfurled
within the shell in which I rest or labor still.

You can drive my car on the road
that holds the fold in the leveled low
to the sand on the beach you know.

Mindful of the outer skies
this darkness of the mind
seeks sunrise with its spokes of light to find.


The 'rude' pattern of the quiet mind
gave restraint a luxuriant black shine.

The glittering arrows that the shine dispersed
nature's aspect and the design that works.


Nothing from nothing has not been born,
yet this appearance has been worn and torn.

When once we know from nothing still
we will divine design with human will.


Those elements from which things are created
increase the bonds to that which had been stated
as weighted.

The increase will conserve its kind
in the law that conserves and binds
until from it release unwinds.

All begotten things abide in change
in the changeless stuff that defines our range
in the begotten name.

There are more abounding crops indeed.
The earth bears the primordial germ of things seen
which the ploughshare turns in fruitful rings keen
as clods make room for seeds to sing as plants to be.

She kneads the mold
that quickens life's hold.

Since all must have their seeds wherefrom to grow
to reach the gentle fields of air to sow more to know
it also comes that nature dissolves the sown
into primal bodies again unknown
as an entity shown.

The facts in logical space are the world.
Creation was formed above the shiny sphere of the pearl.

A thing is called finite after its kind
when it finds a place in your mind.

A body is not limited to thought,
not the thought by  the body wrought.

That which is in itself is a substance.
A change in electric current is inductance.
An attribute constitutes the essence of substance.
The ratio of the current to resistance is conductance.

That which exists in something other than itself is a mode.
The essence of existence is an absolutely infinite node.

The world divides into facts
with the mental force of an axe.

Desire does not always attain the perception for which it strives.
It gets what it can and reaches for different drives.

The cause of perception is the external body
that presses the organ to each sense as haji.

That which touch, smell, taste, sight or hearing has discerned
is a pressure for the mediation of nerve.

The impulse that is sent meets reception in the head.
The brain and heart read the signals that the senses sent to be read.

The eye sees light or color.
The ear hears sound bounce from another.
The nostrils smell the unseen odor.
The tongue tastes flavor to savor.
The body feels the sense that substance tailors.

All the qualities known as sensible
come from objects as detectable.
The object sensed is one thing.
The impression left brings an experiential ring.

Sense is subject to the fancy
of the vigilante chimpanzee.

Aristotle taught that the cause of vision
is sent from the object as a signaled provision.

Light does bounce from thing to sight,
but the thought that the thing sent a signal is not right.

A sound is sent by waves from a source.
A smell is an admission of emission that floats through air of course.

Sense is essential to safety.
Awareness smells the flower and dodges the crazy.

Experience plays a part in what an individual thinks to say.
The fancy chimpanzee has a role to play.

Education lends perspective to perception.
Learning from others can avoid deception.

The cognition of culture is a corporate experience.
This is something an individual should take as serious.

The natural and moral have an empirical course.
The laws of nature concern the experience of force.
Redemption is a course of will that overcomes remorse.

The rule of law is in accord with what ought to occur.
When what ought to happen does not, it is a metaphysical spur
to which the thought of justice must refer.

Experience is the ground for the empirical.
Faith is the substance for the miracle.

If you won't see beyond the past
expectation remains downcast.

Logic must reason to shape the frame for mind.
Nature and morality have a metaphysic drawn from design.

Physics has a rational part.
Morality has a sensible ground in the heart.

The hospital raised to God in the desert town
has been razed to the level of the ground.

The town is still known by the name of El Paso.
It is the place to cross the river without much hassle.

The crown for the town is the crossroad culture.
It's a Tex-Mex chest to escape fear of the vulture.

The souls of the righteous escape the fear of death.
No such torment prevents them from doing their best.

A saint is a person who lives with the unction
that love for others increases the ability to function.

Such as these work with heaven
to make the world like bread with leaven.

The Living Bread saw how others grieve.
He raised the dead to help them to believe.

Belief in life can be a miracle
when the fear of death drives the empirical.

Death is part of life when it is natural.
When imposed outside defense, it is not legally contractual.

Legal contract is the basis for law.
Without literacy, flaws are prolonged.

The tail of the scorpion causes pain with fever.
Delusion becomes a place for the deceiver.

Literate knowledge becomes the healer
from deception by the double dealer.

Who can ascend the height of the hill?
Who can stand in the essence of our existential thrill?Who is there who has the will?

Whosever has clean hands and an honest mind,
they may ascend to the height of the climb.

They will receive the blessing of leadership.
They may join friendliness in dealer's quip.

They carried the ark of the covenant with a new heart.
They came to the house of will on the hill for their start.

Such is the generation of those who seek love,
of those who seek peace from the eternal dove.

Lift your eyes to the arch of the gate.
Open the doors to investigate.

Let the ring of glory into your story.
What is this ring of glory?

The essence of our existence
has a ring for our subsistence
The essence of our existence
overcomes all resistance
to subsistence.

You are the one for me.
Your love helps me to see
how to be.
You are my moral philosophy.

You received spiritual blessing from this heavenly place.
You have drawn love from the empirical base.

This unique blessing shows special favor.
Restraint became the savior to savor flavor.

Shape yourself as a duty.
It's your part in nature's beauty.


Ps 24 Domini est terra

1 The earth is the Lord's and all that is in it,
the world and all who dwell therein.

2 For it is he who founded it upon the seas
and made it firm upon the rivers of the deep.

3 "Who can ascend the hill of the Lord?
and who can stand in his holy place?"

4 "Those who have clean hands and a pure heart,
who have not pledged themselves to falsehood,
nor sworn by what is a fraud.

5 They shall receive a blessing from the Lord
and a just reward from the God of their salvation."

6 Such is the generation of those who seek him,
of those who seek your face, O God of Jacob.
7 Lift up your heads, O gates;
lift them high, O everlasting doors;
and the King of glory shall come in.

8 "Who is this King of glory?"
"The Lord, strong and mighty,
the Lord, mighty in battle."

9 Lift up your heads, O gates;
lift them high, O everlasting doors;
and the King of glory shall come in.

10 "Who is he, this King of glory?"
"The Lord of hosts,
he is the King of glory."

Stephen- Crown

November 1- All Saints' Day
La Hotel Dieu
El Paso, Texas

Wisdom 3:1-4

The souls of the righteous are in the hand of God,
and no torment will ever touch them. 
In the eyes of the foolish they seemed to have died,
and their departure was thought to be a disaster, 
and their going from us to be their destruction;
but they are at peace. 
For though in the sight of others they were punished,
their hope is full of immortality. 

Rev. 21:1

Then I saw a new heaven and a new earth; for the first heaven and the first earth had passed away, and the sea was no more.

John 11:33-35
When Jesus saw her weeping, and the Jews who came with her also weeping, he was greatly disturbed in spirit and deeply moved. He said, ‘Where have you laid him?’ They said to him, ‘Lord, come and see.’ Jesus began to weep.